Japan Research and Analysis
through Internet Information

by Yasuharu Dando

Achieved Japanese herd immunity, with a national character that does not bother you

(By Google Translate : Japanese original) (Profile)
There were more than 20,000 people infected with the new coronavirus _COVID-19 every day, but in a month it fell to the level of a thousand and several hundreds. You can understand it by interpreting it as "achievement". The increase in infections peaked when 40% of the vaccines were completely inoculated, and 50% of the vaccines were settled at once. This pattern is almost the same when examined not only by the situation nationwide but also by prefecture. The uniformity of the Japanese is amazing, as some unscrupulous people tend to be in the news. The national graph created from the NHK website is shown below.

Figure 1 : Changes in outbreaks of infected people nationwide and complete vaccination
Nationwide, 40% of the complete inoculation was done around August 23, and 50% was around September 9. Look at the line graph of the average for the last 7 days, which erases the unevenness due to the day of the week. 40% of complete inoculations have put a brake on the increasing trend of infection, and 50% of complete inoculations have been ruined. The idea of ??herd immunity is that the vaccinated person acts as a "shield" in the group and prevents the virus from reaching unvaccinated people. The national character of Japan, which has been raised to dislike causing trouble to others, naturally takes actions that consider others, such as wearing masks. I am reluctant to take selfish actions just because I have been vaccinated. This non-nuisance national character reduces viral entry into the population. As the number of vaccine "shields" increases, it should be considered that even relatively few "shields" have become effective in Japanese.

Please see the graph created on the Sapporo Medical University website to see how the change in the complete vaccination rate affected new infections compared to other countries. This is a comparison with countries mainly in Europe and the United States that mainly use the messenger RNA vaccine. Countries that have used ineffective Chinese vaccines have purchased additional messenger RNA vaccines, so the relationship with the inoculation rate is messed up.

Figure 2 : Comparing the complete vaccination rate and the transition of new infections in Japan and Europe and the United States
As a large number, the increase in infection is rather remarkable when the complete inoculation rate is in the 40% range. In the 50% range, there are some countries going in and out, and full-scale improvement is only after reaching the 60% range. Portugal, which is the leader in the inoculation rate, Spain, Italy, Sweden, France, and Germany, which are ahead of the reduction in infections, are also reducing infections all at once to the "Stage 3" stage. Denmark, which has completely returned to everyday life, is one of them, but it is still in "Stage 4". Japan, where the infection rate started to decrease as soon as the inoculation rate exceeded 40%, is unusual.

While the number of complete vaccinations is increasing, countries with a strong individualist tendency cannot suppress the selfishness of those who have been vaccinated. I think that the 40% increase in infections in each country compared to Japan shows that. The neighboring South Korea is around 50%, and unlike Japan, the number of infections is increasing rapidly. There is a part that describes the consciousness structure in the 477th "Unsafe Korea, caused by selfish national consciousness" written in 2015.

Figure 3 : Complete vaccination rate and outbreaks improved by local government in Japan on September 12 and 27
I made a sequel graph of what happened to the distribution graph of the 654th "Fifth wave convergence driving force is a rapid increase in vaccination complete inoculation" which was written on September 17th (Japanese original). Compared to September 12th and 27th, it showed a turnaround in infection in prefectures. The national vaccination rate has increased from 51% to 58% during this period. If you connect the prefectures with a large population with a straight line, it is known that the tendency to improve with an increase in the inoculation rate is the same. Okinawa and Osaka are a little behind, but the flow will not change in the future. In many prefectures, new infections have reached single digits per 100,000 population, which is extremely stable. In the future, I would like to move on to vaccination of children and be fully prepared to survive the winter flu season.

Figure 4 : As of September 12, the outbreak of cases per 100,000 people was suppressed when complete vaccination progressed by local government in Japan.

As of October 15, Figure 2 is as follows. Japan goes to an extremely stable state